Problem Four: Newcomb’s Paradox
Sep 30th, 2006 by tony
This paradox is named after its originator, William A. Newcomb, a theoretical physicist at the University of California’s Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.
There are two boxes on the table: one opaque and one transparent. The transparent box has a dollar bill in it. The opaque box is empty at the moment. You have two choices: take the opaque box only or take both boxes.
One hour later, both boxes are removed. A computer called the decision prediction machine predicts the choice you have made. From experiments, the machine has 99% chance of predicting you decision correctly.
If the prediction machine predicts that you will take the opaque box only, a thousand dollars will be put into the opaque box. On the other hand, if it predicts that you will take both boxes, the opaque box will be left empty.
The boxes are returned to the table and you pick the box(es). Note that you have 99% chance of getting $1000 by picking the opaque box only. On the other hand, you always get $1 more by taking both boxes, regardless of the contents in the opaque box. What choice would you make?
Update: Solutions have been posted!